Guizhou Zhicheng 1–0 Tianjin Teda: Result & Stats

Guizhou Zhicheng

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tianjin Teda

9/30/2018

Super League · Round 24Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng38%

×Draw25%

Tianjin Teda37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guizhou ZhichengExpected goals in this matchTianjin Teda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.39

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.40

Tianjin Teda

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

1.27

creates per match

1.11

1.67

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.27

Tianjin Teda

1.11

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.67

Tianjin Teda

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Tianjin Teda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Tianjin Teda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw

63%

Guizhou Zhicheng or Tianjin Teda

75%

Draw or Tianjin Teda

62%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

17%

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

75%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

41%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

17%

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals

75%

Tianjin Teda 2+ goals

40%

Tianjin Teda 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

50%

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.52 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.27 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

Tianjin Teda attack 1.11 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

38%

level

25%

Tianjin Teda scores more

37%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff