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Tianjin Teda vs Guizhou Zhicheng — Super League 2018

Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
5/6/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tianjin Teda58%
×Draw21%
Guizhou Zhicheng21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tianjin Teda
2.08
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.18

Tianjin Teda creates 76% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tianjin Teda
1.44
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.00

allows per match

Tianjin Teda
1.35
Guizhou Zhicheng
2.73

finishing

Tianjin Teda+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Teda ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Tianjin Teda or draw
79%
Tianjin Teda or Guizhou Zhicheng
79%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
42%

Winning margin

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+
35%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals
87%
Tianjin Teda 2+ goals
61%
Tianjin Teda 3+ goals
34%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
69%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
33%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)
73%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Teda at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.35 · 121 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Teda attack 1.44 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.08

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.00 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tianjin Teda scores more
58%
level
21%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
21%

Tianjin Teda at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tianjin Teda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tianjin Teda vs Guizhou Zhicheng

Tianjin Teda beat Guizhou Zhicheng 5-1 in Super League on May 6, 2018.

The match was played at Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Tianjin.