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SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan — Super League 2026

SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
Hulk 90' (pen), 51'
Lei Tenglong 82'
B. Yılmaz 68' (pen)
9/9/2016Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG53%
×Draw21%
Beijing Guoan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.12
Beijing Guoan
1.44

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 47% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 34 away

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.74
Beijing Guoan
1.56

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.31
Beijing Guoan
1.49

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.03on par
Beijing Guoan+0.32scores more

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw
74%
SHANGHAI SIPG or Beijing Guoan
79%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
47%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
31%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
88%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
62%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
35%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
76%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
42%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
67%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.31 · 30 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.49 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.74 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 2.12

Beijing Guoan attack 1.56 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
53%
level
21%
Beijing Guoan scores more
26%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
HulkSHANGHAI SIPGSHANGHAI SIPG · F
8.5

Match Events

46'
Zhang Chiming← Yu Dabao
51'
Hulk↳ Elkeson
65'
Burak Yılmaz
67'
Junling Yan
68'
B. YılmazPenalty
69'
Egor Krimets
75'
Chengdong Zhang
79'
Renato Augusto← I. Sergeev
82'
Lei Tenglong↳ Zhang Chiming
83'
Lü Wenjun← Cai Huikang
90'
Lei Li
90'
HulkPenalty

Possession

42%SHANGHAI

Shots

11SHANGHAI

Pass accuracy

49%SHANGHAI

Statistics

SHANGHAIBeijing
Overview
42%Possession58%
11Total Shots13
6Corners5
14Fouls22
Shots
11Total Shots13
5On Target3
2Off Target4
4Blocked6
5Inside Box8
6Outside Box5
Passing
42%Possession58%
362Total Passes505
287Accurate Passes415
79%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls22
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
3Offsides3

Super League: SHANGHAI SIPG 2–2 Beijing Guoan

SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan drew 2-2 in Super League on September 9, 2016.

Goals: Hulk (51', 90' pen), B. Yılmaz (68' pen), Lei Tenglong (82').

Beijing Guoan controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.