SHANGHAI SIPG 5–1 Beijing Guoan: Result & Stats

SHANGHAI SIPG

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Beijing Guoan

Wu Lei 71', 16'

Oscar 58'

Gustavo 33', 30'

Lin Liangming 13'

7/12/2024

Super League · Round 19SAIC Motor Pudong Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG52%

×Draw21%

Beijing Guoan27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SHANGHAI SIPGExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.45

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.09

Beijing Guoan

1.45

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 44% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 32 away

2.71

creates per match

1.56

1.34

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.71

Beijing Guoan

1.56

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.34

Beijing Guoan

1.48

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.08on par

Beijing Guoan+0.35scores more

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw

73%

SHANGHAI SIPG or Beijing Guoan

79%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

48%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

31%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

88%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

62%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

34%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

77%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

42%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

66%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.34 · 29 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.71 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 2.09

Beijing Guoan attack 1.56 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

52%

level

21%

Beijing Guoan scores more

27%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Oscar

SHANGHAI SIPG · M

10.0

Match Events

13'

Lin Liangming↳ Zhang Xizhe

16'

Wu Lei↳ Wang Shenchao

30'

Gustavo↳ Wu Lei

33'

Gustavo↳ Oscar

55'

Yupeng He

58'

Oscar↳ Wu Lei

60'

Tyias Browning

70'

Fu Huan← Wang Shenchao

70'

Feng Jin← M. Vargas

71'

Wu Lei↳ Feng Jin

73'

Zhang Yuan← Zhang Xizhe

73'

Chi Zhongguo← Guga

73'

Yang Liyu← Lin Liangming

73'

Fang Hao← S. Adegbenro

77'

Xu Xin← Matheus Jussa

77'

Zhang Linpeng← Jiang Guangtai

77'

Wang Ziming← Fábio Abreu

79'

Bao Shimeng← Li Shuai

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SHANGHAIBeijing

Overview

54%Possession46%

31Total Shots12

3.93Expected Goals (xG)1.74

8Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

31Total Shots12

9On Target3

16Off Target5

6Blocked4

17Inside Box8

14Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

443Total Passes375

374Accurate Passes284

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2