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Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG — Super League 2026

Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
4/5/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Beijing Guoan47%
×Draw23%
SHANGHAI SIPG30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Guoan
1.81
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.42

Beijing Guoan creates 27% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Beijing Guoan
2.04
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.67

allows per match

Beijing Guoan
1.17
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.59

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.25scores more
SHANGHAI SIPG+0.46scores more

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw
70%
Beijing Guoan or SHANGHAI SIPG
77%
Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG
53%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
25%
SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
84%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
54%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
27%
SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
76%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
41%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
61%
SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.17 · 31 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.04 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.81

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.67 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more
47%
level
23%
SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
30%

Beijing Guoan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Beijing Guoan 2–2 SHANGHAI SIPG

Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG drew 2-2 in Super League on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Workers' Stadium in Beijing.