Beijing Guoan 2–3 SHANGHAI SIPG: Result & Stats

Beijing Guoan

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

SHANGHAI SIPG

Zhang Xizhe 86'

F. Abreu 45' (pen)

Leonardo 79', 51', 7'

9/21/2025

Super League · Round 25Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Beijing Guoan47%

×Draw23%

SHANGHAI SIPG31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing GuoanExpected goals in this matchSHANGHAI SIPG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.45

Beijing Guoan

1.83

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.45

Beijing Guoan creates 26% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 31 away

2.08

creates per match

1.67

1.23

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Beijing Guoan

2.08

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.67

allows per match

Beijing Guoan

1.23

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.59

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

+0.46scores more than expected

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.20scores more

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.46scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw

69%

Beijing Guoan or SHANGHAI SIPG

77%

Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG

53%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

25%

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

84%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

54%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

28%

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

77%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

42%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

60%

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.23 · 29 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.08 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.83

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.67 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more

47%

level

23%

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

31%

Beijing Guoan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

Leonardo

SHANGHAI SIPG · F

9.9

Match Events

7'

Leonardo↳ Li Shuai

45+9'

Fabio AbreuPenalty cancelled

45+10'

Shenchao Wang

45'

F. AbreuPenalty

51'

Leonardo

53'

LeonardoGoal confirmed

65'

Zhang Yuning← Guga

67'

Zhang Linpeng← Liu Ruofan

67'

Yang Shiyuan← O. Melendo

79'

Leonardo↳ Gabrielzinho

80'

Wang Gang← Fan Shuangjie

80'

Zhang Xizhe← Zhang Yuan

81'

Li Shenglong← Leonardo

86'

Zhang Xizhe

87'

Fang Hao← Cao Yongjing

88'

Fu Huan← Wang Shenchao

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeijingSHANGHAI

Overview

67%Possession33%

17Total Shots15

2.12Expected Goals (xG)2.11

7Corners1

10Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots15

6On Target5

6Off Target5

5Blocked5

9Inside Box12

8Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

582Total Passes290

491Accurate Passes217

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls14

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1