Warta Poznań vs Lechia Gdansk — Ekstraklasa 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 8+ matches
Warta Poznań42%
Lechia Gdansk32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Warta Poznań creates 18% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 22 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Warta Poznań ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Warta Poznań at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.06 · 8 matches
Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Warta Poznań attack 1.06 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.46
Lechia Gdansk attack 1.42 + Warta Poznań defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.24
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Warta Poznań at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Warta Poznań will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Warta Poznań substitutes
Lechia Gdansk substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Radomiak Radom
Legia Warszawa
Jagiellonia
Gornik Zabrze
Korona Kielce
Piast Gliwice
GKS Katowice
Motor Lublin
Slask Wroclaw
Wisla Plock
Wisla Krakow
Lech Poznan
Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
Widzew Łódź
Raków Częstochowa
Wieczysta Kraków
Pogon SzczecinIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Warta Poznań host Lechia Gdansk on Sunday, 19 March 2023 at 11:30. The match is part of the Ekstraklasa 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Warta Poznań vs Lechia Gdansk
Warta Poznań beat Lechia Gdansk 2-0 in Ekstraklasa on March 19, 2023.
Goals: K. Szmyt (26'), S. Savić (81').
Lechia Gdansk controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 16.
The match was played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii in Grodzisk Wielkopolski.