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Lechia Gdansk vs Warta Poznań — Ekstraklasa 2026

Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Warta Poznań
Warta Poznań
M. Nalepa 33'
M. Rybicki 72'
2/5/2021EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 16Stadion Energa Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Lechia Gdansk49%
×Draw24%
Warta Poznań28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Gdansk
1.73
Warta Poznań
1.25

Lechia Gdansk creates 38% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 7 away

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.64
Warta Poznań
0.85

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.66
Warta Poznań
1.81

finishing

Lechia Gdansk-0.01on par
Warta Poznań-0.28scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Warta Poznań →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw
72%
Lechia Gdansk or Warta Poznań
76%
Draw or Warta Poznań
51%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
26%
Warta Poznań wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
82%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
52%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
25%
Warta Poznań 1+ goals
71%
Warta Poznań 2+ goals
36%
Warta Poznań 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
64%
Warta Poznań (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.66 · 27 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.81 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.64 + Warta Poznań defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.73

Warta Poznań attack 0.85 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more
49%
level
24%
Warta Poznań scores more
28%

Lechia Gdansk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
M. Nalepa↳ R. Pietrzak
48'
Mateusz Kuzimski
58'
M. Rybicki← M. Spychała
61'
Conrado← Omran Haydary
66'
Michał Nalepa
69'
M. Kupczak← M. Kopczynski
72'
M. Rybicki↳ M. Kuzimski
75'
J. Ceesay← K. Saief
76'
J. Arak← Flávio Paixão
83'
R. Janicki← M. Żurawski
90'
Bartosz Kopacz

Possession

57%Lechia

Shots

6Lechia

Statistics

LechiaWarta
Overview
57%Possession43%
6Total Shots6
9Corners3
18Fouls13
Shots
6Total Shots6
5On Target3
1Off Target3
Passing
57%Possession43%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
18Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Lechia Gdansk vs Warta Poznań

Lechia Gdansk and Warta Poznań drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on February 5, 2021.

Goals: M. Nalepa (33'), M. Rybicki (72').

Lechia Gdansk controlled possession (57%) and registered 6 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadion Energa Gdańsk in Gdańsk.