Lechia Gdansk 2–0 Warta Poznań: Result & Stats

Lechia Gdansk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Warta Poznań

Flávio Paixão 17' (pen), 5'

4/23/2022

Ekstraklasa · Round 30Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Lechia Gdansk49%

×Draw24%

Warta Poznań28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia GdanskExpected goals in this matchWarta Poznań

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.24

Lechia Gdansk

1.72

Warta Poznań

1.24

Lechia Gdansk creates 39% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 7 away

1.63

creates per match

0.85

1.64

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.63

Warta Poznań

0.85

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.64

Warta Poznań

1.81

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Lechia Gdansk-0.02on par

Warta Poznań-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Warta Poznań →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw

72%

Lechia Gdansk or Warta Poznań

76%

Draw or Warta Poznań

51%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

26%

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

82%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

51%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

25%

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

71%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

35%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

64%

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.64 · 28 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.81 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.63 + Warta Poznań defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.72

Warta Poznań attack 0.85 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more

49%

level

24%

Warta Poznań scores more

28%

Lechia Gdansk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

M. Maloča

Lechia Gdansk · D

8.3

Match Events

5'

Flávio Paixão↳ B. Diabate

15'

Bassekou DiabatePenalty awarded

17'

Flávio PaixãoPenalty

45+1'

Jayson Papeau

55'

David Stec

58'

D. Szelągowski← J. Papeau

58'

M. Corryn← A. Zreľák

60'

Mateusz Kupczak

63'

E. Kryeziu← J. Kałuziński

63'

K. Sezonienko← B. Diabate

64'

Kacper Sezonienko

76'

M. Jakóbowski← F. Castañeda

76'

J. Kiełb← K. Matuszewski

83'

J. Biegański← J. Kubicki

83'

Conrado← İ. Durmuş

83'

M. Rakowski← Miguel Luís

85'

Daniel Szelągowski

87'

Michał Jakóbowski

88'

Egzon Kryeziu

89'

C. Clemens← Flávio Paixão

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LechiaWarta

Overview

61%Possession39%

10Total Shots16

1Corners7

14Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots16

3On Target2

5Off Target6

2Blocked8

6Inside Box11

4Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

545Total Passes336

437Accurate Passes236

80%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Lechia Gdansk vs Warta Poznań

Lechia Gdansk beat Warta Poznań 2-0 in Ekstraklasa on April 23, 2022.

Goals: Flávio Paixão (5', 17' pen).

Lechia Gdansk controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 16.

The match was played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Gdańsk.

Lechia Gdansk vs Warta Poznań — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lechia Gdansk vs Warta Poznań