Warta Poznań 0–1 ŁKS Łódź: Result & Stats

Warta Poznań

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ŁKS Łódź

3/11/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 24Stadion Respect Energy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Warta Poznań55%

×Draw25%

ŁKS Łódź20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta PoznańExpected goals in this matchŁKS Łódź

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.88

Warta Poznań

1.64

ŁKS Łódź

0.88

Warta Poznań creates 86% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 36 away

1.03

creates per match

0.64

1.11

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Warta Poznań

1.03

ŁKS Łódź

0.64

allows per match

Warta Poznań

1.11

ŁKS Łódź

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań ↓

ŁKS Łódź →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Warta Poznań or draw

80%

Warta Poznań or ŁKS Łódź

75%

Draw or ŁKS Łódź

45%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

30%

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

81%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

49%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

23%

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

59%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

22%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

73%

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

ŁKS Łódź away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.25 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań attack 1.03 + ŁKS Łódź defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.64

ŁKS Łódź attack 0.64 + Warta Poznań defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Warta Poznań scores more

55%

level

25%

ŁKS Łódź scores more

20%

Warta Poznań at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Warta Poznań will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff