ŁKS Łódź 0–2 Warta Poznań: Result & Stats

ŁKS Łódź

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Warta Poznań

9/1/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 7Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

ŁKS Łódź32%

×Draw26%

Warta Poznań42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁKS ŁódźExpected goals in this matchWarta Poznań

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.42

ŁKS Łódź

1.20

Warta Poznań

1.42

Warta Poznań creates 18% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 66 away

1.26

creates per match

1.06

1.77

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.26

Warta Poznań

1.06

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.77

Warta Poznań

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Warta Poznań →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw

58%

ŁKS Łódź or Warta Poznań

74%

Draw or Warta Poznań

68%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

13%

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

70%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

34%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

12%

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

76%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

41%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

43%

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.26 + Warta Poznań defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Warta Poznań attack 1.06 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more

32%

level

26%

Warta Poznań scores more

42%

Warta Poznań at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Warta Poznań will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff