ŁKS Łódź 3–0 Warta Poznań: Result & Stats | I Liga

ŁKS Łódź

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Warta Poznań

3/16/2019

I Liga · Round 24Stadion MOSiR (Łódź)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ŁKS Łódź49%

×Draw26%

Warta Poznań25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁKS ŁódźExpected goals in this matchWarta Poznań

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.98

ŁKS Łódź

1.48

Warta Poznań

0.98

ŁKS Łódź creates 51% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 51 away

1.63

creates per match

0.88

1.07

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.63

Warta Poznań

0.88

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.07

Warta Poznań

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Warta Poznań →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw

75%

ŁKS Łódź or Warta Poznań

74%

Draw or Warta Poznań

51%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

24%

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

77%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

43%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

19%

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

62%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

26%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

66%

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 103 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.63 + Warta Poznań defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Warta Poznań attack 0.88 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more

49%

level

26%

Warta Poznań scores more

25%

ŁKS Łódź at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff