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Walsall vs Scunthorpe — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
K. Phillips 47'
A. Beestin 90'
8/17/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 3Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Walsall51%
×Draw25%
Scunthorpe24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.58
Scunthorpe
1.01

Walsall creates 56% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 64 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.29
Scunthorpe
0.83

allows per match

Walsall
1.20
Scunthorpe
1.88

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Scunthorpe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
76%
Walsall or Scunthorpe
75%
Draw or Scunthorpe
49%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
26%
Scunthorpe wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
79%
Walsall 2+ goals
47%
Walsall 3+ goals
21%
Scunthorpe 1+ goals
64%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
27%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
68%
Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Scunthorpe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.58

Scunthorpe attack 0.83 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Walsall scores more
51%
level
25%
Scunthorpe scores more
24%

Walsall at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
A. BeestinScunthorpeScunthorpe · M
7.6

Match Events

33'
Hayden White
47'
K. Phillips↳ B. Kiernan
65'
C. Wilson← J. Rowe
76'
L. Thompson← G. Taft
76'
H. Jessop← M. OMalley
79'
Tom Pugh
81'
E. Osadebe← B. Kiernan
89'
Z. Mills← H. White
90+1'
Alfie Beestin
90'
A. Beestin

Possession

52%Walsall

Shots

17Walsall

Pass accuracy

50%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallScunthorpe
Overview
52%Possession48%
17Total Shots10
5Corners3
13Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots10
1On Target1
9Off Target8
7Blocked1
11Inside Box9
6Outside Box1
Passing
52%Possession48%
436Total Passes415
332Accurate Passes313
76%Pass Accuracy75%
Discipline
13Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

League Two: Walsall 1–1 Scunthorpe

Walsall and Scunthorpe drew 1-1 in League Two on August 17, 2021.

Goals: K. Phillips (47'), A. Beestin (90').

Walsall controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.