Scunthorpe 1–0 Walsall: Result & Stats | League Two

Scunthorpe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Walsall

J. Rowe 34'

2/8/2022

League Two · Round 31Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe33%

×Draw28%

Walsall39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.24

Scunthorpe

1.10

Walsall

1.24

Walsall creates 13% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 156 away

0.89

creates per match

1.13

1.35

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Scunthorpe

0.89

Walsall

1.13

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.35

Walsall

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

61%

Scunthorpe or Walsall

72%

Draw or Walsall

67%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

13%

Walsall wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

67%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

30%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

10%

Walsall 1+ goals

71%

Walsall 2+ goals

35%

Walsall 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

45%

Walsall (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Walsall attack 1.13 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

33%

level

28%

Walsall scores more

39%

Walsall at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

R. Watson

Scunthorpe · G

8.3

Match Events

29'

34'

53'

53'

57'

D. Gallimore← T. Sinclair

57'

J. Nuttall← R. Pyke

59'

B. Kiernan← R. Menayese

59'

C. Wilkinson← E. Osadebe

78'

G. Taft← S. Burns

81'

Joss Labadie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScunthorpeWalsall

Overview

42%Possession58%

8Total Shots16

1Corners7

14Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots16

2On Target5

3Off Target6

3Blocked5

3Inside Box5

5Outside Box11

Passing

42%Possession58%

241Total Passes327

110Accurate Passes196

46%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1