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Scunthorpe vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Walsall
Walsall
A. Bates 84'
W. McDonald 43'
12/26/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 23Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe33%
×Draw28%
Walsall39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.10
Walsall
1.24

Walsall creates 13% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 156 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.89
Walsall
1.13

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.35
Walsall
1.31

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
61%
Scunthorpe or Walsall
72%
Draw or Walsall
67%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
13%
Walsall wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
67%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
30%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
10%
Walsall 1+ goals
71%
Walsall 2+ goals
35%
Walsall 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
45%
Walsall (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Walsall attack 1.13 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
33%
level
28%
Walsall scores more
39%

Walsall at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
L. RobertsWalsallWalsall · G
8.1

Match Events

43'
W. McDonald
72'
D. Guthrie← W. McDonald
77'
J. Proctor← J. Brown
78'
Liam Kinsella
80'
J. Gordon← R. Gaffney
83'
J. Ward← L. Sutton
84'
A. Bates
87'
E. Adebayo← C. Lavery

Possession

63%Scunthorpe

Shots

16Scunthorpe

Pass accuracy

55%Scunthorpe

Statistics

ScunthorpeWalsall
Overview
63%Possession37%
16Total Shots8
12Corners2
12Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots8
5On Target5
5Off Target1
6Blocked2
5Inside Box5
11Outside Box3
Passing
63%Possession37%
468Total Passes278
333Accurate Passes164
71%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls14
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

League Two: Scunthorpe 0–2 Walsall

Walsall beat Scunthorpe 2-0 in League Two on December 26, 2019.

Goals: W. McDonald (43'), A. Bates (84').

Scunthorpe controlled possession (63%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.