Walsall 1–0 Salford City: Result & Stats

Walsall

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Salford City

H. Burke 32'

8/23/2025

League Two · Round 5Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Walsall34%

×Draw26%

Salford City40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.41

Walsall

1.29

Salford City

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.01

creates per match

1.55

1.27

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Walsall

1.01

Salford City

1.55

allows per match

Walsall

1.27

Salford City

1.58

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par

Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

60%

Walsall or Salford City

74%

Draw or Salford City

66%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

15%

Salford City wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

72%

Walsall 2+ goals

37%

Walsall 3+ goals

14%

Salford City 1+ goals

76%

Salford City 2+ goals

41%

Salford City 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

46%

Salford City (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Salford City attack 1.55 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Walsall scores more

34%

level

26%

Salford City scores more

40%

Salford City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

E. Weir

Walsall · D

7.9

Match Events

32'

H. Burke↳ J. Jellis

37'

Vincent Harper

58'

B. Comley← L. Warrington

58'

D. Kanu← A. Adomah

58'

R. Finnigan← J. Jellis

58'

M. Butcher← J. Austerfield

70'

J. Bird← B. Woodburn

87'

J. Matt← A. Pressley

87'

C. Clarke← C. Barrett

87'

T. Edwards← A. Oluwo

90+3'

Brandon Comley

90+3'

Rosaire Longelo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallSalford

Overview

30%Possession70%

18Total Shots6

5Corners2

12Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots6

6On Target3

9Off Target1

3Blocked2

15Inside Box2

3Outside Box4

Passing

30%Possession70%

192Total Passes481

125Accurate Passes375

65%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides4