Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Walsall vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Salford City
Salford City
M. Faal 90+2'
J. Matt 9'
M. Lund 61'
4/1/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 42Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Walsall34%
×Draw26%
Salford City40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.29
Salford City
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.01
Salford City
1.55

allows per match

Walsall
1.27
Salford City
1.58

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par
Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
60%
Walsall or Salford City
74%
Draw or Salford City
66%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
15%
Salford City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
72%
Walsall 2+ goals
37%
Walsall 3+ goals
14%
Salford City 1+ goals
76%
Salford City 2+ goals
41%
Salford City 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
46%
Salford City (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Salford City attack 1.55 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Walsall scores more
34%
level
26%
Salford City scores more
40%

Salford City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
I. HutchinsonWalsallWalsall · M
7.9

Match Events

9'
J. Matt↳ I. Hutchinson
41'
Luke Garbutt
46'
D. James-Taylor← J. Matt
50'
Adrian Mariappa
61'
M. Lund↳ R. Watson
65'
R. Stirk← R. Tierney
65'
M. Faal← J. Gordon
77'
M. Smith← C. Hendry
78'
K. N’Mai← M. Lund
86'
D. Johnson← J. Foulkes
90+2'
M. Faal↳ E. Adegboyega

Possession

43%Walsall

Shots

10Walsall

Pass accuracy

46%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallSalford
Overview
43%Possession57%
10Total Shots18
4Corners5
11Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots18
5On Target6
2Off Target6
3Blocked6
7Inside Box9
3Outside Box9
Passing
43%Possession57%
290Total Passes391
176Accurate Passes284
61%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls15
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Walsall vs Salford City

Walsall beat Salford City 2-1 in League Two on April 1, 2024.

Goals: J. Matt (9'), M. Lund (61'), M. Faal (90+2').

Salford City controlled possession (57%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Poundland Bescot Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.