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Salford City vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Walsall
Walsall
F. Borini 74'
3/10/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 32Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City44%
×Draw25%
Walsall31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.57
Walsall
1.27

Salford City creates 24% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.95
Walsall
1.78

allows per match

Salford City
0.77
Walsall
1.20

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less
Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
69%
Salford City or Walsall
75%
Draw or Walsall
56%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
22%
Walsall wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
79%
Salford City 2+ goals
46%
Salford City 3+ goals
21%
Walsall 1+ goals
72%
Walsall 2+ goals
36%
Walsall 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
59%
Walsall (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.57

Walsall attack 1.78 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Salford City scores more
44%
level
25%
Walsall scores more
31%

Salford City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
B. CooperSalford CitySalford City · D
7.5

Match Events

38'
Aden Flint
56'
Haji Mnoga
67'
F. Borini← C. Stockton
67'
O. Ashley← J. Austerfield
67'
P. Ehibhatiomhan← J. Grant
74'
F. Borini↳ R. Graydon
76'
J. Matt← A. Pressley
76'
C. Clarke← C. Lakin
79'
C. Barrett← V. Harper
79'
M. Hancock← J. Jellis
85'
A. Oluwo← R. Longelo-Mbule
87'
A. Dorrington←

Possession

51%Salford

Shots

5Salford

Pass accuracy

51%Salford

Statistics

SalfordWalsall
Overview
51%Possession49%
5Total Shots7
11Corners2
11Fouls7
Shots
5Total Shots7
2On Target1
3Off Target5
1Blocked1
4Inside Box5
1Outside Box2
Passing
51%Possession49%
291Total Passes290
176Accurate Passes165
60%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls7
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Salford City vs Walsall

Salford City beat Walsall 1-0 in League Two on March 10, 2026.

Goals: F. Borini (74').

Salford City controlled possession (51%) and registered 5 shots to 7.

The match was played at Peninsula Stadium in Salford.