Walsall 2–3 Salford City: Result & Stats

Walsall

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Salford City

C. Wilkinson 90+5'

J. Matt 62'

M. Lund 90+7'

C. McAleny 88'

C. Hendry 6'

4/22/2023

League Two · Round 44Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Walsall34%

×Draw26%

Salford City40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.41

Walsall

1.29

Salford City

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.01

creates per match

1.55

1.27

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Walsall

1.01

Salford City

1.55

allows per match

Walsall

1.27

Salford City

1.58

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par

Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

60%

Walsall or Salford City

74%

Draw or Salford City

66%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

15%

Salford City wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

72%

Walsall 2+ goals

37%

Walsall 3+ goals

14%

Salford City 1+ goals

76%

Salford City 2+ goals

41%

Salford City 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

46%

Salford City (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Salford City attack 1.55 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Walsall scores more

34%

level

26%

Salford City scores more

40%

Salford City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

L. Gordon

Walsall · D

7.9

Match Events

6'

C. Hendry↳ L. Shephard

40'

53'

54'

54'

62'

74'

C. McAleny← L. Shephard

76'

D. James-Taylor← J. Maddox

82'

Stevie Mallan

83'

C. Wilkinson← J. Matt

83'

M. Lund← E. Watt

88'

C. McAleny↳ L. Bolton

90'

L. Kinsella← O. McEntee

90'

E. Galbraith← C. Hendry

90+5'

C. Wilkinson↳ D. James-Taylor

90+7'

M. Lund↳ A. Mariappa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallSalford

Overview

60%Possession40%

6Total Shots14

2Corners4

10Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots14

3On Target5

1Off Target7

2Blocked2

3Inside Box6

3Outside Box8

Passing

60%Possession40%

464Total Passes313

354Accurate Passes215

76%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

4Offsides2