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Walsall vs Rochdale — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
Preview
14:00
Rochdale
Rochdale
9/12/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 6Bescot Stadium
Big match
43%
Walsall
model favours
43%27%30%
1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Walsall43%
×Draw27%
Rochdale30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.33
Rochdale
1.07

Walsall creates 24% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 56 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.29
Rochdale
0.95

allows per match

Walsall
1.20
Rochdale
1.36

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
70%
Walsall or Rochdale
73%
Draw or Rochdale
57%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
20%
Rochdale wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
74%
Walsall 2+ goals
38%
Walsall 3+ goals
15%
Rochdale 1+ goals
66%
Rochdale 2+ goals
29%
Rochdale 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
59%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Walsall scores more
43%
level
27%
Rochdale scores more
30%

Walsall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
Rochdale
Balanced
44%PossessionBiggest gap52%
64%Pass accuracy70%
12.1Shots10.5
1.47xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WalsallRochdale

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Walsall
1
Draws
3
Rochdale
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 50%
2–41–00–10–01–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Walsall
LDLLW
Rochdale
DLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Walsall vs Rochdale — Match Preview

Walsall face Rochdale on September 12, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Walsall host Rochdale at Bescot Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.