Rochdale 4–2 Walsall: Result & Stats | League Two

Rochdale

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Walsall

E. Brierley 65'

M. Taylor 56'

D. Lloyd-McGoldrick 44'

I. Henderson 42'

T. Knowles 51'

J. Matt 23'

4/7/2023

League Two · Round 40Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale39%

×Draw27%

Walsall34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.23

Rochdale

1.34

Walsall

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 156 away

1.38

creates per match

1.13

1.32

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Rochdale

1.38

Walsall

1.13

allows per match

Rochdale

1.32

Walsall

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

66%

Rochdale or Walsall

73%

Draw or Walsall

61%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

18%

Walsall wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

74%

Rochdale 2+ goals

39%

Rochdale 3+ goals

15%

Walsall 1+ goals

71%

Walsall 2+ goals

35%

Walsall 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

54%

Walsall (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Walsall attack 1.13 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rochdale scores more

39%

level

27%

Walsall scores more

34%

Rochdale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

E. Brierley

Rochdale · M

8.2

Match Events

23'

J. Matt↳ B. Comley

42'

I. Henderson↳ M. Taylor

44'

D. Lloyd-McGoldrick

51'

T. Knowles

56'

M. Taylor↳ E. Brierley

64'

J. Maddox← L. Gordon

64'

J. Labadie← B. Comley

65'

Owen Evans

65'

E. Brierley

69'

Jacob Maddox

71'

C. Wilkinson← L. Kinsella

71'

M. Stevens← J. Riley

78'

S. Graham← D. Lloyd-McGoldrick

85'

T. Mullarkey← A. Odoh

90'

J. Ball← L. Kelly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RochdaleWalsall

Overview

46%Possession54%

13Total Shots13

4Corners5

4Fouls6

Shots

13Total Shots13

5On Target3

4Off Target5

4Blocked5

6Inside Box5

7Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

350Total Passes392

243Accurate Passes286

69%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

4Fouls6

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

League Two: Rochdale 4–2 Walsall

Rochdale beat Walsall 4-2 in League Two on April 7, 2023.

Goals: J. Matt (23'), I. Henderson (42'), D. Lloyd-McGoldrick (44'), T. Knowles (51'), M. Taylor (56'), E. Brierley (65').

Walsall controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Crown Oil Arena in Rochdale, Greater Manchester.

Rochdale vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Rochdale 4–2 Walsall