Walsall 1–0 Rochdale: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rochdale

H. White 35'

10/29/2022

League Two · Round 17Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Walsall43%

×Draw27%

Rochdale30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.07

Walsall

1.33

Rochdale

1.07

Walsall creates 24% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 56 away

1.29

creates per match

0.95

1.20

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Walsall

1.29

Rochdale

0.95

allows per match

Walsall

1.20

Rochdale

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

70%

Walsall or Rochdale

73%

Draw or Rochdale

57%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

20%

Rochdale wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

74%

Walsall 2+ goals

38%

Walsall 3+ goals

15%

Rochdale 1+ goals

66%

Rochdale 2+ goals

29%

Rochdale 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

59%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Walsall scores more

43%

level

27%

Rochdale scores more

30%

Walsall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

H. White

Walsall · D

7.7

Match Events

19'

19'

35'

67'

67'

E. Brierley← T. Diagouraga

70'

A. Williams← D. Johnson

75'

81'

82'

86'

87'

D. James-Taylor← T. Knowles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallRochdale

Overview

37%Possession63%

9Total Shots10

5Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots10

3On Target2

2Off Target5

4Blocked3

6Inside Box7

3Outside Box3

Passing

37%Possession63%

239Total Passes420

131Accurate Passes298

55%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2