Rochdale 1–0 Walsall: Result & Stats | League Two

Rochdale

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Walsall

C. Grant 55'

4/9/2022

League Two · Round 41Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale39%

×Draw27%

Walsall34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.23

Rochdale

1.34

Walsall

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 156 away

1.38

creates per match

1.13

1.32

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Rochdale

1.38

Walsall

1.13

allows per match

Rochdale

1.32

Walsall

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

66%

Rochdale or Walsall

73%

Draw or Walsall

61%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

18%

Walsall wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

74%

Rochdale 2+ goals

39%

Rochdale 3+ goals

15%

Walsall 1+ goals

71%

Walsall 2+ goals

35%

Walsall 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

54%

Walsall (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Walsall attack 1.13 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rochdale scores more

39%

level

27%

Walsall scores more

34%

Rochdale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

L. Kelly

Rochdale · M

7.7

Match Events

25'

S. Perry← L. Kinsella

45+1'

55'

60'

60'

71'

A. Odoh← C. Grant

72'

D. Rodney← B. Kiernan

73'

Joss Labadie

86'

Conor Wilkinson

90'

M. Done← L. Charman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RochdaleWalsall

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots7

8Corners5

14Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots7

5On Target2

2Off Target3

4Blocked2

7Inside Box2

4Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

398Total Passes285

289Accurate Passes169

73%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls17

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3