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Walsall vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Walsall
Walsall
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 3
Port Vale
Port Vale
L. Amantchi 11'
T. Allen 7' (pen)
L. Tolaj 45+2' (pen), 4'
B. Garrity 41'
4/5/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 41Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Walsall32%
×Draw27%
Port Vale42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.15
Port Vale
1.36

Port Vale creates 18% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 36 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.10
Port Vale
1.42

allows per match

Walsall
1.31
Port Vale
1.19

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
58%
Walsall or Port Vale
73%
Draw or Port Vale
68%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
13%
Port Vale wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
68%
Walsall 2+ goals
32%
Walsall 3+ goals
11%
Port Vale 1+ goals
74%
Port Vale 2+ goals
39%
Port Vale 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
43%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.10 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Walsall scores more
32%
level
27%
Port Vale scores more
42%

Port Vale at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
L. TolajPort ValePort Vale · F
9.3

Match Events

4'
L. Tolaj
7'
T. AllenPenalty
11'
L. Amantchi↳ O. McEntee
30'
Lorent Tolaj
32'
Liam Gordon
36'
S. Hart← K. John
41'
B. Garrity↳ L. Tolaj
44'
Nathan Asiimwe
45+2'
L. TolajPenalty
46'
C. Barrett← N. Asiimwe
46'
G. Hall← E. Weir
55'
Sam Hart
59'
Taylor Allen
72'
R. Curtis← J. Stockley
74'
E. Wheatley← J. Matt
74'
A. Adomah← J. Jellis
77'
David Okagbue
85'
D. Johnson← L. Amantchi
86'
G. Byers← R. Walters
86'
A. Hackford← L. Tolaj
88'
Oisin McEntee

Possession

45%Walsall

Shots

10Walsall

Pass accuracy

46%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallPort
Overview
45%Possession55%
10Total Shots14
4Corners3
16Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots14
5On Target4
2Off Target6
3Blocked4
8Inside Box7
2Outside Box7
Passing
45%Possession55%
285Total Passes367
167Accurate Passes252
59%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls12
5Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

League Two: Walsall 2–3 Port Vale

Port Vale beat Walsall 3-2 in League Two on April 5, 2025.

Goals: L. Tolaj (4', 45+2' pen), T. Allen (7' pen), L. Amantchi (11'), B. Garrity (41').

Port Vale controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Poundland Bescot Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.