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Walsall vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Walsall
Walsall
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
E. Osadebe 90+3'
S. Perry 67'
4/23/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 44Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Walsall32%
×Draw27%
Port Vale42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.15
Port Vale
1.36

Port Vale creates 18% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 36 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.10
Port Vale
1.42

allows per match

Walsall
1.31
Port Vale
1.19

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
58%
Walsall or Port Vale
73%
Draw or Port Vale
68%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
13%
Port Vale wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
68%
Walsall 2+ goals
32%
Walsall 3+ goals
11%
Port Vale 1+ goals
74%
Port Vale 2+ goals
39%
Port Vale 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
43%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.10 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Walsall scores more
32%
level
27%
Port Vale scores more
42%

Port Vale at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. OsadebeWalsallWalsall · M
9.5

Match Events

43'
S. Perry← J. Labadie
45+3'
Hayden White
46'
R. Menayese← R. Devine
52'
Nathan Smith
67'
S. Perry↳ E. Osadebe
71'
R. Edmondson← D. Worrall
71'
D. Amoo← T. Pett
72'
C. Hussey← M. Benning
83'
Rollin Menayese
90+3'
E. Osadebe↳ H. White

Possession

42%Walsall

Shots

12Walsall

Pass accuracy

46%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallPort
Overview
42%Possession58%
12Total Shots8
4Corners9
11Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots8
2On Target2
7Off Target2
3Blocked4
10Inside Box4
2Outside Box4
Passing
42%Possession58%
266Total Passes367
156Accurate Passes255
59%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls15
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

League Two: Walsall 2–0 Port Vale

Walsall beat Port Vale 2-0 in League Two on April 23, 2022.

Goals: S. Perry (67'), E. Osadebe (90+3').

Port Vale controlled possession (58%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.