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Port Vale vs Walsall — League Two 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Walsall
Walsall
B. Kiernan 29'
11/23/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 18Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Port Vale36%
×Draw26%
Walsall38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.31
Walsall
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 31 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.66
Walsall
1.61

allows per match

Port Vale
1.09
Walsall
0.97

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
62%
Port Vale or Walsall
74%
Draw or Walsall
64%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
16%
Walsall wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
73%
Port Vale 2+ goals
38%
Port Vale 3+ goals
14%
Walsall 1+ goals
74%
Walsall 2+ goals
39%
Walsall 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
49%
Walsall (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.66 + Walsall defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.31

Walsall attack 1.61 + Port Vale defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Port Vale scores more
36%
level
26%
Walsall scores more
38%

Walsall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
B. KiernanWalsallWalsall · M
7.5

Match Events

11'
Rollin Menayese
29'
B. Kiernan↳ C. Wilkinson
46'
D. Rodney← D. Worrall
46'
M. Benning← D. Jones
52'
James Gibbons
52'
Hayden White
53'
Tom Conlon
54'
T. Shade← B. Kiernan
68'
Jack Earing
70'
J. Proctor← T. Pett
72'
Tom Conlon
72'
Tom Conlon
72'
L. Kinsella← C. Wilkinson
80'
K. Phillips← E. Osadebe
90+1'
Nathan Smith
90+2'
Tyrese Shade

Possession

56%Port

Shots

5Port

Pass accuracy

54%Port

Statistics

PortWalsall
Overview
56%Possession44%
5Total Shots11
3Corners3
17Fouls16
Shots
5Total Shots11
0On Target4
4Off Target7
1Blocked0
2Inside Box5
3Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
357Total Passes294
234Accurate Passes169
66%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
17Fouls16
4Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
3Offsides1

League Two: Port Vale 0–1 Walsall

Walsall beat Port Vale 1-0 in League Two on November 23, 2021.

Goals: B. Kiernan (29').

Port Vale controlled possession (56%) and registered 5 shots to 11.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.