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Walsall vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Walsall
Walsall
Preview
18:45
Oldham
Oldham
10/20/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 12Bescot Stadium
Big match
43%
Walsall
model favours
43%26%31%

Walsall raise their game against the top half — 45% wins vs the upper half, only 41% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Walsall43%
×Draw26%
Oldham31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.46
Oldham
1.20

Walsall creates 22% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 42 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.53
Oldham
1.12

allows per match

Walsall
1.27
Oldham
1.40

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
69%
Walsall or Oldham
74%
Draw or Oldham
57%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
21%
Oldham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
77%
Walsall 2+ goals
43%
Walsall 3+ goals
18%
Oldham 1+ goals
70%
Oldham 2+ goals
34%
Oldham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
58%
Oldham (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.53 + Oldham defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Oldham attack 1.12 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Walsall scores more
43%
level
26%
Oldham scores more
31%

Walsall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Style contrast — Walsall play Direct / counter-attacking, Oldham Defensively solid

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
Oldham
Defensively solid
43%Possession47%
61%Pass accuracy63%
11.1Shots11.8
1.56xGBiggest gap1.40
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WalsallOldham

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Walsall
1
Draws
1
Oldham
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 80%
1–21–02–13–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Walsall
DLLWL
Oldham
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Walsall vs Oldham — Match Preview

Walsall face Oldham on October 20, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Walsall host Oldham at Bescot Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.