Oldham 0–1 Walsall: Result & Stats | League Two

Oldham

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Walsall

D. Kanu 27'

12/10/2025

League Two · Round 19Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Oldham35%

×Draw27%

Walsall38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.27

Oldham

1.20

Walsall

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 53 away

1.32

creates per match

1.42

1.12

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Oldham

1.32

Walsall

1.42

allows per match

Oldham

1.12

Walsall

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par

Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

62%

Oldham or Walsall

73%

Draw or Walsall

65%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

15%

Walsall wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

70%

Oldham 2+ goals

34%

Oldham 3+ goals

12%

Walsall 1+ goals

72%

Walsall 2+ goals

36%

Walsall 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

48%

Walsall (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.32 + Walsall defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Walsall attack 1.42 + Oldham defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oldham scores more

35%

level

27%

Walsall scores more

38%

Walsall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

D. Kanu

Walsall · F

7.5

Match Events

22'

27'

36'

45'

57'

K. Drummond← L. Hannant

63'

B. Comley← L. Warrington

63'

R. Finnigan← J. Jellis

67'

M. Mellon← J. Quigley

68'

J. Caprice← D. Simeu

75'

P. Farquharson← D. Cox

75'

77'

84'

85'

85'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OldhamWalsall

Overview

53%Possession47%

11Total Shots6

4Corners4

16Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots6

4On Target1

6Off Target3

1Blocked2

7Inside Box4

4Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

312Total Passes283

170Accurate Passes155

54%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides5

Match Recap: Oldham vs Walsall

Walsall beat Oldham 1-0 in League Two on December 10, 2025.

Goals: D. Kanu (27').

Oldham controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Boundary Park in Oldham.

Oldham vs Walsall — League Two 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Oldham vs Walsall