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Walsall vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Walsall
Walsall
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Oldham
Oldham
D. Kanu 50'
K. Harratt 90'
J. Garner 15'
12/29/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 23Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Walsall43%
×Draw26%
Oldham31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.46
Oldham
1.20

Walsall creates 22% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 42 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.53
Oldham
1.12

allows per match

Walsall
1.27
Oldham
1.40

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
69%
Walsall or Oldham
74%
Draw or Oldham
57%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
21%
Oldham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
77%
Walsall 2+ goals
43%
Walsall 3+ goals
18%
Oldham 1+ goals
70%
Oldham 2+ goals
34%
Oldham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
58%
Oldham (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.53 + Oldham defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Oldham attack 1.12 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Walsall scores more
43%
level
26%
Oldham scores more
31%

Walsall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
R. WoodsOldhamOldham · M
8.3

Match Events

15'
J. Garner↳ R. Woods
36'
R. Browne← P. Farquharson
38'
Aden Flint
45+2'
Joe Garner
50'
D. Kanu↳ J. Matt
56'
Kai Payne
58'
J. Quigley← J. Garner
65'
A. Pressley← J. Matt
76'
J. Okeke← C. Barrett
77'
C. Lakin← R. Finnigan
77'
A. Adomah← D. Kanu
84'
K. Harratt← K. Drummond
87'
Courtney Clarke
90'
K. Harratt↳ R. Woods

Possession

53%Walsall

Shots

11Walsall

Pass accuracy

54%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallOldham
Overview
53%Possession47%
11Total Shots18
0.87Expected Goals (xG)1.44
4Corners7
13Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots18
4On Target6
4Off Target9
3Blocked3
9Inside Box7
2Outside Box11
Passing
53%Possession47%
301Total Passes267
208Accurate Passes158
69%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Walsall vs Oldham

Oldham beat Walsall 2-1 in League Two on December 29, 2025.

Goals: J. Garner (15'), D. Kanu (50'), K. Harratt (90').

Walsall controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 18.

The match was played at Bescot Stadium in Walsall.