Oldham 1–3 Walsall: Result & Stats | League Two

Oldham

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Walsall

H. Hope 67'

E. Osadebe 85'

G. Miller 43'

J. Earing 33'

10/19/2021

League Two · Round 13Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Oldham40%

×Draw26%

Walsall34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.27

Oldham

1.39

Walsall

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 157 away

1.45

creates per match

1.13

1.42

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Oldham

1.45

Walsall

1.13

allows per match

Oldham

1.42

Walsall

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par

Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

66%

Oldham or Walsall

74%

Draw or Walsall

60%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

19%

Walsall wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

75%

Oldham 2+ goals

40%

Oldham 3+ goals

16%

Walsall 1+ goals

72%

Walsall 2+ goals

36%

Walsall 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

54%

Walsall (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.45 + Walsall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.39

Walsall attack 1.13 + Oldham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oldham scores more

40%

level

26%

Walsall scores more

34%

Oldham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

H. Hope

Oldham · F

7.9

Match Events

9'

Joss Labadie

10'

H. Hope← A. Sheehan

27'

Jamie Bowden

33'

J. Earing↳ C. Wilkinson

43'

G. Miller

46'

F. Bettache← Z. Dearnley

62'

H. Vaughan← J. Stobbs

64'

B. Kiernan← T. Shade

67'

H. Hope↳ J. Bowden

68'

K. Phillips← C. Wilkinson

76'

Callum Whelan

85'

E. Osadebe

88'

S. Perry← J. Labadie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OldhamWalsall

Overview

54%Possession46%

9Total Shots16

4Corners3

10Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots16

4On Target5

1Off Target5

4Blocked6

6Inside Box9

3Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

399Total Passes342

294Accurate Passes230

74%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1