Walsall 2–2 Gillingham: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Gillingham

D. Kanu 66'

A. Loupalo-Bi 21'

S. Palmer-Houlden 63'

R. Hale 50'

4/3/2026

League Two · Round 41Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Walsall44%

×Draw28%

Gillingham28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.00

Walsall

1.34

Gillingham

1.00

Walsall creates 34% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 92 away

1.32

creates per match

0.84

1.17

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Walsall

1.32

Gillingham

0.84

allows per match

Walsall

1.17

Gillingham

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

72%

Walsall or Gillingham

72%

Draw or Gillingham

56%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

21%

Gillingham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

74%

Walsall 2+ goals

39%

Walsall 3+ goals

15%

Gillingham 1+ goals

63%

Gillingham 2+ goals

26%

Gillingham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

61%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.17 · 139 matches

Gillingham away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.36 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.32 + Gillingham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.34

Gillingham attack 0.84 + Walsall defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Walsall scores more

44%

level

28%

Gillingham scores more

28%

Walsall at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

S. Palmer-Houlden

Gillingham · F

7.6

Match Events

21'

A. Loupalo-Bi↳ C. Clarke

38'

C. Lakin← A. Pattison

50'

52'

63'

64'

66'

69'

J. Andrews← S. Palmer-Houlden

74'

A. Adomah← A. Loupalo-Bi

82'

J. Williams← H. Waldock

90+4'

Sam Gale

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallGillingham

Overview

59%Possession41%

10Total Shots12

5Corners3

6Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots12

4On Target4

4Off Target6

2Blocked2

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

375Total Passes265

257Accurate Passes154

69%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls17

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1