Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gillingham vs Walsall — League Two 2020

Gillingham
Gillingham
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Walsall
Walsall
C. Masterson 77'
I. Hutchinson 62' (pen)
2/3/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 31Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Gillingham38%
×Draw28%
Walsall33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.20
Walsall
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 140 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.08
Walsall
1.13

allows per match

Gillingham
1.08
Walsall
1.31

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
67%
Gillingham or Walsall
72%
Draw or Walsall
62%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
16%
Walsall wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
70%
Gillingham 2+ goals
34%
Gillingham 3+ goals
12%
Walsall 1+ goals
67%
Walsall 2+ goals
30%
Walsall 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
53%
Walsall (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.08 · 92 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.08 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Walsall attack 1.13 + Gillingham defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gillingham scores more
38%
level
28%
Walsall scores more
33%

Gillingham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
T. KnowlesWalsallWalsall · D
7.9

Match Events

33'
Josh Gordon
40'
George Lapslie
58'
David Okagbue
61'
Shadrach Ogie
62'
I. HutchinsonPenalty
63'
J. Cabezas← J. Walker
63'
T. Dieng← C. Mahoney
64'
J. Williams← G. Lapslie
67'
J. Matt← M. Faal
72'
R. Stirk← J. Earing
77'
R. Tierney← J. Gordon
77'
C. Masterson
89'
Timothée Dieng
90+5'
A. Nadesan← O. Hawkins

Possession

49%Gillingham

Shots

14Gillingham

Pass accuracy

50%Gillingham

Statistics

GillinghamWalsall
Overview
49%Possession51%
14Total Shots18
5Corners4
12Fouls15
Shots
14Total Shots18
3On Target3
5Off Target5
6Blocked10
8Inside Box11
6Outside Box7
Passing
49%Possession51%
325Total Passes345
207Accurate Passes221
64%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls15
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Gillingham vs Walsall

Gillingham and Walsall drew 1-1 in League Two on February 3, 2024.

Goals: I. Hutchinson (62' pen), C. Masterson (77').

Walsall controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at Priestfield Stadium in Gillingham, Kent.