Gillingham 0–0 Walsall: Result & Stats | League Two

Gillingham

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Walsall

3/22/2025

League Two · Round 38Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Gillingham31%

×Draw28%

Walsall41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.30

Gillingham

1.10

Walsall

1.30

Walsall creates 18% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 53 away

1.13

creates per match

1.42

1.19

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Gillingham

1.13

Walsall

1.42

allows per match

Gillingham

1.19

Walsall

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

59%

Gillingham or Walsall

72%

Draw or Walsall

69%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

12%

Walsall wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

67%

Gillingham 2+ goals

30%

Gillingham 3+ goals

10%

Walsall 1+ goals

73%

Walsall 2+ goals

37%

Walsall 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

43%

Walsall (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 48 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.13 + Walsall defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Walsall attack 1.42 + Gillingham defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gillingham scores more

31%

level

28%

Walsall scores more

41%

Walsall at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

G. Morris

Gillingham · G

7.9

Match Events

36'

Oisin McEntee

61'

Nathan Asiimwe

71'

J. Williams← J. Morgan

71'

L. Amantchi← J. Matt

84'

J. Wakeling← J. Gbode

84'

84'

90+5'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamWalsall

Overview

54%Possession46%

12Total Shots15

1Corners2

7Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots15

3On Target4

8Off Target6

1Blocked5

6Inside Box10

6Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

376Total Passes314

264Accurate Passes198

70%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2