Walsall 4–1 Gillingham: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Gillingham

I. Hutchinson 85', 58', 34'

F. Draper 39'

M. Bonne 60'

10/14/2023

League Two · Round 13Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Walsall37%

×Draw27%

Gillingham36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.24

Walsall

1.27

Gillingham

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.01

creates per match

1.21

1.27

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Walsall

1.01

Gillingham

1.21

allows per match

Walsall

1.27

Gillingham

1.53

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par

Gillingham-0.29scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

64%

Walsall or Gillingham

73%

Draw or Gillingham

63%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

16%

Gillingham wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

72%

Walsall 2+ goals

36%

Walsall 3+ goals

14%

Gillingham 1+ goals

71%

Gillingham 2+ goals

35%

Gillingham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

51%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Gillingham defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Gillingham attack 1.21 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Walsall scores more

37%

level

27%

Gillingham scores more

36%

Walsall at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

I. Hutchinson

Walsall · M

9.6

Match Events

34'

I. Hutchinson↳ R. Stirk

39'

F. Draper↳ I. Hutchinson

46'

M. Ehmer← R. McKenzie

49'

Max Clark

56'

J. Clarke← S. Williams

58'

I. Hutchinson↳ O. McEntee

60'

M. Bonne

70'

Ross Tierney

72'

Tom Knowles

73'

G. Lapslie← T. Nichols

74'

Macauley Bonne

77'

Oisin McEntee

79'

B. Comley← T. Knowles

79'

J. Matt← F. Draper

85'

I. Hutchinson↳ R. Tierney

89'

J. Williams← C. Mahoney

90+5'

Shadrach Ogie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallGillingham

Overview

32%Possession68%

13Total Shots14

0Corners4

14Fouls6

Shots

13Total Shots14

7On Target5

6Off Target5

0Blocked4

8Inside Box10

5Outside Box4

Passing

32%Possession68%

291Total Passes577

179Accurate Passes459

62%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls6

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3