Walsall 2–0 Gillingham: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gillingham

C. Wilkinson 90+5'

I. Hutchinson 50'

3/18/2023

League Two · Round 37Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Walsall37%

×Draw27%

Gillingham36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.24

Walsall

1.27

Gillingham

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.01

creates per match

1.21

1.27

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Walsall

1.01

Gillingham

1.21

allows per match

Walsall

1.27

Gillingham

1.53

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par

Gillingham-0.29scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

64%

Walsall or Gillingham

73%

Draw or Gillingham

63%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

16%

Gillingham wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

72%

Walsall 2+ goals

36%

Walsall 3+ goals

14%

Gillingham 1+ goals

71%

Gillingham 2+ goals

35%

Gillingham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

51%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Gillingham defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Gillingham attack 1.21 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Walsall scores more

37%

level

27%

Gillingham scores more

36%

Walsall at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Wilkinson

Walsall · F

7.7

Match Events

31'

Aiden O'Brien

50'

I. Hutchinson↳ T. Knowles

53'

J. Low← J. Maddox

58'

A. MacDonald← G. Lapslie

74'

C. Wilkinson← A. Williams

74'

R. McKenzie← D. Tutonda

75'

D. Jefferies← T. Dieng

81'

Y. Songo'o← J. Riley

81'

M. Stevens← T. Knowles

90+5'

Brandon Comley

90+2'

Isaac Hutchinson

90+1'

T. Abrahams← C. Alexander

90+5'

C. Wilkinson↳ M. Stevens

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallGillingham

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots13

7Corners4

10Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots13

6On Target0

2Off Target8

4Blocked5

8Inside Box6

4Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

301Total Passes311

186Accurate Passes183

62%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0