Walsall 2–1 Gillingham: Result & Stats | League One

Walsall

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Gillingham

I. Osbourne 42'

M. Ferrier 12'

T. Eaves 90+3'

8/18/2018

League One · Round 3Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Walsall35%

×Draw27%

Gillingham39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.31

Walsall

1.23

Gillingham

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 99 away

1.07

creates per match

1.17

1.45

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Walsall

1.07

Gillingham

1.17

allows per match

Walsall

1.45

Gillingham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

61%

Walsall or Gillingham

73%

Draw or Gillingham

65%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

15%

Gillingham wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

71%

Walsall 2+ goals

35%

Walsall 3+ goals

13%

Gillingham 1+ goals

73%

Gillingham 2+ goals

38%

Gillingham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

47%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.45 · 29 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.07 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Walsall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Walsall scores more

35%

level

27%

Gillingham scores more

39%

Gillingham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. Ferrier↳ G. Dobson

42'

I. Osbourne↳ K. Morris

66'

C. Wilkinson← B. Hanlan

67'

C. Reilly← B. Bingham

78'

78'

86'

89'

90+1'

J. Gordon← M. Ferrier

90+3'

T. Eaves↳ C. Wilkinson

Walsall

Gillingham

1

Holý

6

Zakuani

2

▼

O'Neill

33

Byrne

16

▼

5

3

14

11

9

⚽

Eaves

7

▼

1

6

3

5

27

30

⚽

Osbourne

8

A

Morris

4

A

Dobson

11

Ginnelly

9

Cook

16

⚽

▼

Ferrier

Manager: D. Keates

90+1'▲J. Gordon←▼M. Ferrier

Walsall substitutes

29Gordon13Dunn15Kinsella17Kouhyar18Sangha19Candlin28Wilson

Manager: S. Lovell

66'▲C. Wilkinson←▼B. Hanlan

67'▲C. Reilly←▼B. Bingham

78'▲B. Fuller←▼L. ONeill

Gillingham substitutes

10Wilkinson13Reilly12Fuller4Lacey17Nasseri25Stevenson30Hadler