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Walsall vs Exeter City — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Exeter City
Exeter City
10/17/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 6Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Walsall38%
×Draw27%
Exeter City36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.31
Exeter City
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 157 home / 97 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.29
Exeter City
1.35

allows per match

Walsall
1.20
Exeter City
1.32

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
64%
Walsall or Exeter City
73%
Draw or Exeter City
62%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
17%
Exeter City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
73%
Walsall 2+ goals
38%
Walsall 3+ goals
14%
Exeter City 1+ goals
72%
Exeter City 2+ goals
36%
Exeter City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
51%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Exeter City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Exeter City attack 1.35 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Walsall scores more
38%
level
27%
Exeter City scores more
36%

Walsall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
L. WardExeter CityExeter City · G
7.5

Match Events

60'
D. Guthrie← S. Sinclair
61'
Pierce Sweeney
70'
C. Lavery← E. Osadebe
83'
B. Seymour← J. Randall
87'
A. Bates← L. Kinsella
87'
N. Law← A. Fisher

Possession

50%Walsall

Shots

10Walsall

Pass accuracy

50%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallExeter
Overview
50%Possession50%
10Total Shots6
10Corners4
10Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots6
3On Target2
4Off Target3
3Blocked1
7Inside Box5
3Outside Box1
Passing
50%Possession50%
364Total Passes372
239Accurate Passes249
66%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls15
0Yellow Cards1
5Offsides1

League Two: Walsall 0–0 Exeter City

Walsall and Exeter City drew 0-0 in League Two on October 17, 2020.

Walsall controlled possession (50%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.