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Walsall vs Exeter City — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Exeter City
Exeter City
E. Adebayo 90+2', 71'
R. Holden 3'
R. Bowman 51'
3/7/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 37Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Walsall38%
×Draw27%
Exeter City36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.31
Exeter City
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 157 home / 97 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.29
Exeter City
1.35

allows per match

Walsall
1.20
Exeter City
1.32

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
64%
Walsall or Exeter City
73%
Draw or Exeter City
62%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
17%
Exeter City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
73%
Walsall 2+ goals
38%
Walsall 3+ goals
14%
Exeter City 1+ goals
72%
Exeter City 2+ goals
36%
Exeter City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
51%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Exeter City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Exeter City attack 1.35 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Walsall scores more
38%
level
27%
Exeter City scores more
36%

Walsall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
E. AdebayoWalsallWalsall · F
8.4

Match Events

3'
R. Holden
33'
Jayden Richardson
46'
J. Taylor← N. Atangana
51'
R. Bowman↳ R. Williams
68'
E. Adebayo← C. Lavery
69'
L. Kinsella← S. Sinclair
71'
E. Adebayo↳ C. Norman
73'
P. Sweeney← B. Dickenson
73'
A. Fisher← N. Law
75'
Danny Guthrie
79'
N. Sheron← D. Guthrie
87'
Josh Gordon
90'
Ryan Bowman
90+2'
E. Adebayo↳ J. Gordon

Possession

46%Walsall

Shots

20Walsall

Pass accuracy

49%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallExeter
Overview
46%Possession54%
20Total Shots9
5Corners4
8Fouls9
Shots
20Total Shots9
6On Target2
7Off Target3
7Blocked4
12Inside Box5
8Outside Box4
Passing
46%Possession54%
325Total Passes379
197Accurate Passes241
61%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls9
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Walsall vs Exeter City

Walsall beat Exeter City 3-1 in League Two on March 7, 2020.

Goals: R. Holden (3'), R. Bowman (51'), E. Adebayo (71', 90+2').

Exeter City controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 20.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.