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Exeter City vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Exeter City
Exeter City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Walsall
Walsall
3/2/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 33St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Exeter City46%
×Draw27%
Walsall28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.42
Walsall
1.04

Exeter City creates 37% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 156 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.53
Walsall
1.13

allows per match

Exeter City
0.96
Walsall
1.31

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
72%
Exeter City or Walsall
73%
Draw or Walsall
54%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
22%
Walsall wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
76%
Exeter City 2+ goals
41%
Exeter City 3+ goals
17%
Walsall 1+ goals
65%
Walsall 2+ goals
28%
Walsall 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
62%
Walsall (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.53 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.42

Walsall attack 1.13 + Exeter City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Exeter City scores more
46%
level
27%
Walsall scores more
28%

Exeter City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
L. RobertsWalsallWalsall · G
7.6

Match Events

46'
J. Gordon← J. Reid
46'
F. Vincent← C. Cockerill-Mollett
49'
Max Melbourne
63'
Rory McArdle
73'
N. Atangana← J. Taylor
83'
J. Sparkes← J. Randall
85'
S. Perry← S. Sinclair
88'
A. Fisher← R. Willmott

Possession

58%Exeter

Shots

11Exeter

Pass accuracy

58%Exeter

Statistics

ExeterWalsall
Overview
58%Possession42%
11Total Shots2
7Corners2
9Fouls17
Shots
11Total Shots2
3On Target0
2Off Target1
6Blocked1
5Inside Box1
6Outside Box1
Passing
58%Possession42%
477Total Passes341
316Accurate Passes163
66%Pass Accuracy48%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls17
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

League Two: Exeter City 0–0 Walsall

Exeter City and Walsall drew 0-0 in League Two on March 2, 2021.

Exeter City controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 2.

The match was played at St James Park in Exeter, Devon.