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Walsall vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
Preview
15:00
Colchester
Colchester
1/30/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 28Bescot Stadium
Big match
42%
Walsall
model favours
42%26%32%
1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Walsall42%
×Draw26%
Colchester32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.46
Colchester
1.25

Walsall creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.06
Colchester
1.11

allows per match

Walsall
1.39
Colchester
1.85

finishing

Walsall-0.06on par
Colchester+0.20scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
68%
Walsall or Colchester
74%
Draw or Colchester
58%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
20%
Colchester wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
77%
Walsall 2+ goals
43%
Walsall 3+ goals
18%
Colchester 1+ goals
71%
Colchester 2+ goals
36%
Colchester 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
56%
Colchester (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 10 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.06 + Colchester defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.46

Colchester attack 1.11 + Walsall defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Walsall scores more
42%
level
26%
Colchester scores more
32%

Walsall at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
Colchester
Balanced
44%PossessionBiggest gap50%
64%Pass accuracy71%
12.1Shots11.2
1.47xG1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WalsallColchester

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Walsall
5
Draws
2
Colchester
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 50%
1–10–21–24–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Walsall
LDLLW
Colchester
LWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Walsall vs Colchester — Match Preview

Walsall face Colchester on January 30, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Walsall host Colchester at Bescot Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.