Walsall 4–0 Colchester: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Colchester

J. Earing 90+2', 89'

A. Adomah 79'

J. Jellis 39'

9/28/2024

League Two · Round 8Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 158+ matches

Walsall42%

×Draw27%

Colchester31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.10

Walsall

1.32

Colchester

1.10

Walsall creates 20% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 159 away

1.30

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Walsall

1.30

Colchester

1.00

allows per match

Walsall

1.20

Colchester

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par

Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

69%

Walsall or Colchester

73%

Draw or Colchester

58%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

19%

Colchester wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

73%

Walsall 2+ goals

38%

Walsall 3+ goals

15%

Colchester 1+ goals

67%

Colchester 2+ goals

30%

Colchester 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

57%

Colchester (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 158 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.30 + Colchester defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Colchester attack 1.00 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Walsall scores more

42%

level

27%

Colchester scores more

31%

Walsall at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Earing

Walsall · M

8.6

Match Events

15'

21'

32'

39'

45+1'

51'

A. Scully← O. Edwards

64'

71'

71'

79'

81'

81'

82'

A. Donnelly← E. Iandolo

89'

90+2'

90+2'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallColchester

Overview

43%Possession57%

15Total Shots9

5Corners5

14Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots9

6On Target0

5Off Target2

4Blocked7

12Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

285Total Passes370

201Accurate Passes284

71%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls6

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

League Two: Walsall 4–0 Colchester

Walsall beat Colchester 4-0 in League Two on September 28, 2024.

Goals: J. Jellis (39'), A. Adomah (79'), J. Earing (89', 90+2').

Colchester controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 15.

The match was played at Poundland Bescot Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.

Walsall vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Walsall 4–0 Colchester