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Colchester vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Walsall
Walsall
H. Anderson 68'
H. Burke 64'
3/28/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 40Colchester Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 157+ matches

Colchester41%
×Draw27%
Walsall31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.32
Walsall
1.11

Colchester creates 19% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 157 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.32
Walsall
1.13

allows per match

Colchester
1.10
Walsall
1.32

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
69%
Colchester or Walsall
73%
Draw or Walsall
59%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
19%
Walsall wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
73%
Colchester 2+ goals
38%
Colchester 3+ goals
15%
Walsall 1+ goals
67%
Walsall 2+ goals
30%
Walsall 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
57%
Walsall (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 157 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Walsall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

Walsall attack 1.13 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Colchester scores more
41%
level
27%
Walsall scores more
31%

Colchester at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
T. BishopColchesterColchester · M
7.7

Match Events

46'
F. Terry← T. Flanagan
56'
S. Tovide← J. Williams
59'
C. Clarke← A. Adomah
60'
J. Okeke← A. Loupalo-Bi
63'
Arthur Read
64'
H. Burke
68'
H. Anderson↳ A. Read
73'
J. Jellis← C. Lakin
80'
R. Hunt← A. Read
86'
V. Harper← R. Browne
88'
O. Edwards← K. Lisbie
89'
Ellis Iandolo

Possession

64%Colchester

Shots

16Colchester

Pass accuracy

55%Colchester

Statistics

ColchesterWalsall
Overview
64%Possession36%
16Total Shots13
1.74Expected Goals (xG)1.74
9Corners8
7Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots13
5On Target7
6Off Target2
5Blocked4
12Inside Box8
4Outside Box5
Passing
64%Possession36%
546Total Passes302
418Accurate Passes187
77%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls11
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Colchester vs Walsall

Colchester and Walsall drew 1-1 in League Two on March 28, 2026.

Goals: H. Burke (64'), H. Anderson (68').

Colchester controlled possession (64%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at Colchester Community Stadium in Colchester.