Colchester 2–1 Walsall: Result & Stats | League Two

Colchester

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Walsall

O. Edwards 74'

E. Bishop 69'

C. Lakin 65'

2/8/2025

League Two · Round 31JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 157+ matches

Colchester41%

×Draw27%

Walsall31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.11

Colchester

1.32

Walsall

1.11

Colchester creates 19% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 157 away

1.32

creates per match

1.13

1.10

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Colchester

1.32

Walsall

1.13

allows per match

Colchester

1.10

Walsall

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

69%

Colchester or Walsall

73%

Draw or Walsall

59%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

19%

Walsall wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

73%

Colchester 2+ goals

38%

Colchester 3+ goals

15%

Walsall 1+ goals

67%

Walsall 2+ goals

30%

Walsall 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

57%

Walsall (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 157 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Walsall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

Walsall attack 1.13 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Colchester scores more

41%

level

27%

Walsall scores more

31%

Colchester at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

E. Bishop

Colchester · M

7.7

Match Events

19'

53'

57'

62'

65'

C. Lakin↳ E. Harrison

66'

A. Adomah← J. Matt

69'

E. Bishop

74'

O. Edwards↳ E. Iandolo

78'

Taylor Allen

78'

Taylor Allen

83'

Jack Payne

85'

K. Vincent-Young← O. Edwards

86'

L. Amantchi← R. Stirk

86'

B. Comley← C. Lakin

86'

D. Johnson← E. Harrison

89'

Oisin McEntee

90+9'

Tyreece Simpson

90+7'

A. Read← J. Payne

90+7'

J. Tucker← E. Bishop

90+4'

T. Simpson← L. Taylor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterWalsall

Overview

65%Possession35%

9Total Shots8

5Corners2

14Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots8

3On Target4

5Off Target3

1Blocked1

6Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

481Total Passes246

361Accurate Passes155

75%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls16

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Colchester vs Walsall

Colchester beat Walsall 2-1 in League Two on February 8, 2025.

Goals: C. Lakin (65'), E. Bishop (69'), O. Edwards (74').

Colchester controlled possession (65%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at JobServe Community Stadium in Colchester, Essex.

Colchester vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Colchester vs Walsall