Walsall 1–1 Colchester: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Colchester

T. Knowles 61'

F. Nouble 2'

9/13/2022

League Two · Round 9Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Walsall41%

×Draw26%

Colchester33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.24

Walsall

1.41

Colchester

1.24

Walsall creates 14% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.01

creates per match

1.21

1.27

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Walsall

1.01

Colchester

1.21

allows per match

Walsall

1.27

Colchester

1.81

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par

Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

67%

Walsall or Colchester

74%

Draw or Colchester

59%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

19%

Colchester wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

76%

Walsall 2+ goals

41%

Walsall 3+ goals

17%

Colchester 1+ goals

71%

Colchester 2+ goals

35%

Colchester 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

55%

Colchester (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.41

Colchester attack 1.21 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Walsall scores more

41%

level

26%

Colchester scores more

33%

Walsall at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

L. Kinsella

Walsall · M

7.3

Match Events

2'

16'

21'

22'

30'

43'

46'

A. Williams← H. White

46'

J. Maddox← B. Comley

49'

Beryly Lubala

61'

T. Knowles↳ D. Johnson

80'

N. Chilvers← T. Dallison-Lisbon

80'

F. Sears← B. Lubala

87'

D. Cashman← I. Hutchinson

87'

D. Chesters← K. Appiah

87'

C. Skuse← A. Judge

88'

J. Tchamadeu← R. Clampin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallColchester

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots9

3Corners3

16Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots9

3On Target1

4Off Target5

3Blocked3

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

336Total Passes267

223Accurate Passes156

66%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2