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WAFA vs Karela — Premier League 2019

WAFA
WAFA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Karela
Karela
K. Andoh 82'
2/13/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

WAFA53%
×Draw28%
Karela19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WAFA
1.38
Karela
0.71

WAFA creates 94% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 110 away

creates per match

WAFA
1.44
Karela
0.60

allows per match

WAFA
0.83
Karela
1.31

finishing

WAFA+0.00on par
Karela+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAFA ↓

Karela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

WAFA or draw
81%
WAFA or Karela
72%
Draw or Karela
47%

Winning margin

WAFA wins by 2+
26%
Karela wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

WAFA 1+ goals
75%
WAFA 2+ goals
40%
WAFA 3+ goals
16%
Karela 1+ goals
51%
Karela 2+ goals
16%
Karela 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

WAFA (draw refunded)
73%
Karela (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAFA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

Karela away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAFA attack 1.44 + Karela defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Karela attack 0.60 + WAFA defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

WAFA scores more
53%
level
28%
Karela scores more
19%

WAFA at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "WAFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
M. Zuo← M. Zuo
53'
61'
67'
G. Segla← G. Segla
67'
K. Andoh← K. Andoh
71'
P. Mensah← P. Mensah
72'
M. Tetteh← M. Tetteh
77'
E. Intori← E. Intori
80'
82'
K. Andoh
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

WAFA 0 – 1 Karela

Karela beat WAFA 1-0 in Premier League on February 13, 2022.

Goals: K. Andoh (82').

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.