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Karela vs WAFA — Premier League 2019

Karela
Karela
FT
0 – 1
WAFA
WAFA
12/29/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · 2020 - 1Tarkwa T&A Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Karela51%
×Draw27%
WAFA21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karela
1.40
WAFA
0.79

Karela creates 77% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 44 away

creates per match

Karela
1.42
WAFA
0.84

allows per match

Karela
0.74
WAFA
1.39

finishing

Karela+0.00on par
WAFA+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

WAFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Karela or draw
79%
Karela or WAFA
73%
Draw or WAFA
49%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+
25%
WAFA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals
75%
Karela 2+ goals
41%
Karela 3+ goals
17%
WAFA 1+ goals
55%
WAFA 2+ goals
19%
WAFA 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)
71%
WAFA (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.74 · 110 matches

WAFA away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.39 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 1.42 + WAFA defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

WAFA attack 0.84 + Karela defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Karela scores more
51%
level
27%
WAFA scores more
21%

Karela at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Premier League: Karela 0–1 WAFA

WAFA beat Karela 1-0 in Premier League on December 29, 2019.

The match was played at Tarkwa T&A Park in Tarkwa.