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Karela vs WAFA — Premier League 2019

Karela
Karela
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
WAFA
WAFA
U. Bashiru 49'
6/19/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 34Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Karela52%
×Draw27%
WAFA21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karela
1.41
WAFA
0.78

Karela creates 81% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 44 away

creates per match

Karela
1.43
WAFA
0.84

allows per match

Karela
0.73
WAFA
1.39

finishing

Karela+0.00on par
WAFA+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

WAFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Karela or draw
79%
Karela or WAFA
73%
Draw or WAFA
48%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+
26%
WAFA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals
76%
Karela 2+ goals
41%
Karela 3+ goals
17%
WAFA 1+ goals
54%
WAFA 2+ goals
18%
WAFA 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)
71%
WAFA (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.73 · 111 matches

WAFA away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.39 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 1.43 + WAFA defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.41

WAFA attack 0.84 + Karela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Karela scores more
52%
level
27%
WAFA scores more
21%

Karela at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
I. Donkor← I. Donkor
47'
E. Boakye Owusu← E. Boakye Owusu
49'
U. Bashiru
83'
S. Akane← S. Akane
83'
P. Mensah← P. Mensah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Karela 1 – 0 WAFA

Karela beat WAFA 1-0 in Premier League on June 19, 2022.

Goals: U. Bashiru (49').

The match was played at Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium in Nzema Anyinase.