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WAFA vs Great Olympics — Division One League 2025

WAFA
WAFA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Great Olympics
Great Olympics
11/15/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

WAFA39%
×Draw33%
Great Olympics28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WAFA
0.96
Great Olympics
0.77

WAFA creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

WAFA
1.13
Great Olympics
0.60

allows per match

WAFA
0.93
Great Olympics
0.80

finishing

WAFA+0.00on par
Great Olympics+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAFA ↓

Great Olympics →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

WAFA or draw
72%
WAFA or Great Olympics
67%
Draw or Great Olympics
61%

Winning margin

WAFA wins by 2+
14%
Great Olympics wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

WAFA 1+ goals
62%
WAFA 2+ goals
25%
WAFA 3+ goals
7%
Great Olympics 1+ goals
54%
Great Olympics 2+ goals
18%
Great Olympics 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

WAFA (draw refunded)
58%
Great Olympics (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAFA at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Great Olympics away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAFA attack 1.13 + Great Olympics defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Great Olympics attack 0.60 + WAFA defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

WAFA scores more
39%
level
33%
Great Olympics scores more
28%

WAFA at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "WAFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: WAFA 0–1 Great Olympics

Great Olympics beat WAFA 1-0 in Division One League on November 15, 2025.