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Great Olympics vs WAFA — Premier League 2019

Great Olympics
Great Olympics
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
WAFA
WAFA
Unknown 67'
S. Armah 49'
M. Owusu 84'
M. Zuo 53'
3/30/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Great Olympics51%
×Draw28%
WAFA20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Great Olympics
1.33
WAFA
0.72

Great Olympics creates 85% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 43 away

creates per match

Great Olympics
1.26
WAFA
0.79

allows per match

Great Olympics
0.64
WAFA
1.40

finishing

Great Olympics+0.00on par
WAFA+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Great Olympics ↓

WAFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Great Olympics or draw
80%
Great Olympics or WAFA
72%
Draw or WAFA
49%

Winning margin

Great Olympics wins by 2+
25%
WAFA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Great Olympics 1+ goals
74%
Great Olympics 2+ goals
38%
Great Olympics 3+ goals
15%
WAFA 1+ goals
51%
WAFA 2+ goals
16%
WAFA 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Great Olympics (draw refunded)
72%
WAFA (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Great Olympics at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.64 · 77 matches

WAFA away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Great Olympics attack 1.26 + WAFA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

WAFA attack 0.79 + Great Olympics defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Great Olympics scores more
51%
level
28%
WAFA scores more
20%

Great Olympics at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Great Olympics will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
S. Armah
53'
M. Zuo
66'
G. Segla← G. Segla
67'
73'
E. Agyeman Ofori← E. Agyeman Ofori
73'
S. Agyepong← S. Agyepong
73'
M. Owusu← M. Owusu
84'
M. Owusu
87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Great Olympics 2–2 WAFA

Great Olympics and WAFA drew 2-2 in Premier League on March 30, 2022.

Goals: S. Armah (49'), M. Zuo (53'), ? (67'), M. Owusu (84').

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.