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WAFA vs Great Olympics — Premier League 2019

WAFA
WAFA
FT
2 – 3
Great Olympics
Great Olympics
J. Torsutsey 79'
E. Asubonteng 70'
A. Munasiru 90+4'
K. Yiadom 60' (OG)
G. Awako 14'
5/7/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

WAFA52%
×Draw28%
Great Olympics20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WAFA
1.36
Great Olympics
0.72

WAFA creates 89% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 75 away

creates per match

WAFA
1.44
Great Olympics
0.61

allows per match

WAFA
0.83
Great Olympics
1.29

finishing

WAFA+0.00on par
Great Olympics+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAFA ↓

Great Olympics →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

WAFA or draw
80%
WAFA or Great Olympics
72%
Draw or Great Olympics
48%

Winning margin

WAFA wins by 2+
25%
Great Olympics wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

WAFA 1+ goals
74%
WAFA 2+ goals
39%
WAFA 3+ goals
16%
Great Olympics 1+ goals
51%
Great Olympics 2+ goals
16%
Great Olympics 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

WAFA (draw refunded)
72%
Great Olympics (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAFA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

Great Olympics away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAFA attack 1.44 + Great Olympics defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Great Olympics attack 0.61 + WAFA defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

WAFA scores more
52%
level
28%
Great Olympics scores more
20%

WAFA at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "WAFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
G. Awako
22'
C. Danso
46'
G. Agbevor← G. Agbevor
46'
K. Boakye Yiadom← K. Boakye Yiadom
60'
K. YiadomOwn goal
69'
J. Rhule← J. Rhule
70'
E. Asubonteng
79'
J. Torsutsey
80'
A. Munasiru← A. Munasiru
86'
R. Kasim
90+4'
A. Munasiru

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WAFA vs Great Olympics

Great Olympics beat WAFA 3-2 in Premier League on May 7, 2021.

Goals: G. Awako (14'), K. Yiadom (60' o.g.), E. Asubonteng (70'), J. Torsutsey (79'), A. Munasiru (90+4').

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.